Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid- to upper-level trough over the West Coast will gradually shift eastward into the Interior West as another large-scale trough over the East Coast pivots eastward into the western Atlantic. Surface high pressure will be centered over the central Gulf Coast today while a lee low develops over the central High Plains. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible from central CA eastward through the Great Basin and into the central Rockies. Scant instability will preclude strong/severe storm development with this activity. ..Smith/Jewell.. 03/06/2025 

 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to exhibit considerable spread concerning short wave developments within the evolving pattern across North America late this coming weekend through the middle of next week. Concerning an initial perturbation likely to be slowly progressing across the southern Great Plains at the outset of the period, latest model guidance now appears to maintain a less sheared/more substantive (but positively tilted) wave across the northeastern Gulf/South Atlantic Seaboard late this weekend into early next week. However, it still appears that associated frontal wave development will remain subdued, at least until it shifts offshore of the Atlantic coast, which may tend to minimize the risk for severe storms across the Southeast. Thereafter, through the middle to latter portion of next week, it appears that another notable short wave trough will emerge from the southern mid-latitude Pacific and provide support for cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern Rockies by Wednesday. This may quickly be followed by a much more vigorous and amplified wave, and more prominent cyclogenesis next Thursday into Friday. However, in the wake of the lower latitude weekend trough, low-level moisture return off the Gulf may be initially limited for the trailing perturbation, and the timing of the rapidly following wave might not be optimal with regard to subsequent inland moisture return. At least some risk for organized severe convection may materialize to the east of the Rockies next Wednesday through Thursday night. However, the extent and location remain uncertain at this time.